Let the Gobbling Begin

Good morning everyone,

I hope your early week has not been ruined by this winter storm gripping the southern and eastern US. I will be heading north tomorrow morning and wanted to get in a quick post before I left.

Don’t expect too much from the markets this week, but moving forward I feel pretty confident we will continue seeing strength until early spring of next year. Unless congress or the FED gives us something to worry about, it appears economic conditions will not be deteriorating any time soon. Take a look at this week’s “Weekly Briefing” by 361 Capital for a more detailed look at why the market should continue exercising it’s holiday cheer:

Some points I took away from the report:

  • After 7 straight positive weeks for the S&P, history indicates we’ll see positive returns two months from now
  • The banking sector looks to be gaining a lot of strength (bullish for markets)
  • Hedge funds continue to be a poor place to put your money on average
  • Household balance sheets continue to mend
  • “Quits” in the labor market continue to increase, showing participants are confident they can find work elsewhere if they want to

What spoke most to me as a long-term investor and a believer that you can’t time the market is this:

Rolling 10-yr S&P Returns
Still think stocks aren’t the place to be over the long-term?

What this shows me is that over the last 77-78 years, there have only been two periods where investors would have experienced negative average annual returns over any 10-year span of time. It just so happens those two periods were after the Great Depression and Great Recession. If you own stocks, WAY more often than not, you are going to make money.

Buy, hold, rebalance, and stop selling out every time Mr. Market gives a little sneeze. Over time you will be rewarded for your patience. 

Have a happy Thanksgiving and safe travels to any of you who are hitting the road. 


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